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Synopsis Foundational habitats such as seagrasses and coral reefs are at severe risk globally from climate warming. Infectious disease associated with warming events is both a cause of decline and an indicator of stress in both habitats. Since new approaches are needed to detect refugia and design climate-smart networks of marine protected areas, we test the hypothesis that the health of eelgrass (Zostera marina) in temperate ecosystems can serve as a proxy indicative of higher resilience and help pinpoint refugia. Eelgrass meadows worldwide are at risk from environmental stressors, including climate warming and disease. Disease outbreaks of Labyrinthula zosterae are associated with recent, widespread declines in eelgrass meadows throughout the San Juan Islands, Washington, USA. Machine language learning, drone surveys, and molecular diagnostics reveal climate impacts on seagrass wasting disease prevalence (proportion of infected individuals) and severity (proportion of infected leaf area) from San Diego, California, to Alaska. Given that warmer temperatures favor many pathogens such as L. zosterae, we hypothesize that absent or low disease severity in meadows could indicate eelgrass resilience to climate and pathogenic stressors. Regional surveys showed the San Juan Islands as a hotspot for both high disease prevalence and severity, and surveys throughout the Northeast Pacific indicated higher prevalence and severity in intertidal, rather than subtidal, meadows. Further, among sites with eelgrass declines, losses were more pronounced at sites with shallower eelgrass meadows. We suggest that deeper meadows with the lowest disease severity will be refuges from future warming and pathogenic stressors in the Northeast Pacific. Disease monitoring may be a useful conservation approach for marine foundation species, as low or absent disease severity can pinpoint resilient refugia that should be prioritized for future conservation efforts. Even in declining or at-risk habitats, disease surveys can help identify meadows that may contain especially resilient individuals for future restoration efforts. Our approach of using disease as a pulse point for eelgrass resilience to multiple stressors could be applied to other habitats such as coral reefs to inform conservation and management decisions. 

Seagrass meadows are essential habitats that support marine biodiversity and coastal communities while sequestering carbon, filtering water, and stabilizing coastal sediments. Warming temperatures stress seagrass meadows and can facilitate seagrass wasting disease, contributing to large-scale diebacks of seagrass meadows. Here, we demonstrate how high-resolution imagery, collected by uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) and validated by in situ sampling, can quantify seagrass responses to disease and thermal stress. 

Eelgrass creates critical coastal habitats worldwide and fulfills essential ecosystem functions as a foundation seagrass. Climate warming and disease threaten eelgrass, causing mass mortalities and cascading ecological impacts. Subtidal meadows are deeper than intertidal and may also provide refuge from the temperature-sensitive seagrass wasting disease. From cross-boundary surveys of 5761 eelgrass leaves from Alaska to Washington and assisted with a machine-language algorithm, we measured outbreak conditions. Across summers 2017 and 2018, disease prevalence was 16% lower for subtidal than intertidal leaves; in both tidal zones, disease risk was lower for plants in cooler conditions. Even in subtidal meadows, which are more environmentally stable and sheltered from temperature and other stressors common for intertidal eelgrass, we observed high disease levels, with half of the sites exceeding 50% prevalence. Models predicted reduced disease prevalence and severity under cooler conditions, confirming a strong interaction between disease and temperature. At both tidal zones, prevalence was lower in more dense eelgrass meadows, suggesting disease is suppressed in healthy, higher density meadows. These results underscore the value of subtidal eelgrass and meadows in cooler locations as refugia, indicate that cooling can suppress disease, and have implications for eelgrass conservation and management under future climate change scenarios. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world’. 

Diseases of tropical reef organisms is an intensive area of study, but despite significant advances in methodology and the global knowledge base, identifying the proximate causes of disease outbreaks remains difficult. The dynamics of infectious wildlife diseases are known to be influenced by shifting interactions among the host, pathogen, and other members of the microbiome, and a collective body of work clearly demonstrates that this is also the case for the main foundation species on reefs, corals. Yet, among wildlife, outbreaks of coral diseases stand out as being driven largely by a changing environment. These outbreaks contributed not only to significant losses of coral species but also to whole ecosystem regime shifts. Here we suggest that to better decipher the disease dynamics of corals, we must integrate more holistic and modern paradigms that consider multiple and variable interactions among the three major players in epizootics: the host, its associated microbiome, and the environment. In this perspective, we discuss how expanding the pathogen component of the classic host-pathogen-environment disease triad to incorporate shifts in the microbiome leading to dysbiosis provides a better model for understanding coral disease dynamics. We outline and discuss issues arising when evaluating each component of this trio and make suggestions for bridging gaps between them. We further suggest that to best tackle these challenges, researchers must adjust standard paradigms, like the classic one pathogen-one disease model, that, to date, have been ineffectual at uncovering many of the emergent properties of coral reef disease dynamics. Lastly, we make recommendations for ways forward in the fields of marine disease ecology and the future of coral reef conservation and restoration given these observations.